Santa Clara
vs
Benfica
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Santa Clara 0–1 Benfica
The model makes it 23% Santa Clara, 27% draw, 50% Benfica — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Santa Clara 0.96, Benfica 1.68.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Benfica are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Santa Clara are 4th on 18 points from 8 games; Benfica are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Casa Pia.
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitória SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Benfica 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santa Clara vs Benfica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santa Clara vs Benfica
Santa Clara
- W1-0away to Casa Pia10 October 2026
- D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Arouca13 September 2026
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
Benfica
- W2-0Vitória SC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026
- W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
What these results say
- Santa Clara went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Santa Clara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Santa Clara
Chance to finish in the top four · 27% today
Benfica
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 26% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs Benfica
- 13 February 2026Santa Clara 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 12 September 2025Benfica 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 15 February 2025Santa Clara 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 30 October 2024Benfica 3–0 Santa ClaraTaça da Liga
- 14 September 2024Benfica 4–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 27 May 2023Benfica 3–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Santa Clara and Benfica
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis83
- G. Prestianni53
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santa Clara carry a model rating of 6.88 against 7.23 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Santa Clara and 1.68 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santa Clara rate 0.84 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.62 and 0.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santa Clara a 0.1% chance of the title and Benfica 26%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Santa Clara against 1.68 for Benfica. Santa Clara's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.76 for Benfica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santa Clara at home · Benfica away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Santa Clara 8, Benfica 8.
Santa Clara score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Benfica have let in 0 there.
Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Santa Clara have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Santa Clara
- at Maritimo1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 41%
- vs GIL Vicente8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 42%
- at Moreirense28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 43%
- vs FC Porto6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 20%
- at Estoril13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 42%
Benfica
- vs Alverca2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 70%
- vs Lech Poznan5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 64%
- at Estrela8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.