Aucas
vs
LDU de Quito
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Aucas 1–0 LDU de Quito
The model makes it 36% Aucas, 31% draw, 33% LDU de Quito — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aucas 1.16, LDU de Quito 1.07.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Aucas and LDU de Quito are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Aucas are 4th on 50 points from 31 games; LDU de Quito are 5th on 49 points from 31 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Aucas are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Macara.
- LDU de Quito are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Universidad Catolica Quito.
- Last 6 meetings: LDU de Quito 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 August 2026, ended LDU de Quito 1–0 Aucas.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aucas vs LDU de Quito
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aucas at 36% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aucas vs LDU de Quito
Aucas
- L1-2Macara19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manta FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Barcelona SC7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Universidad Catolica Quito3 September 2026
- W1-0Libertad30 August 2026
LDU de Quito
- W2-1Universidad Catolica Quito20 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Cuenca13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Tecnico Universitario5 September 2026
- D0-0Mushuc Runa SC2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Guayaquil City FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Aucas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aucas had two goals or fewer.
- LDU de Quito scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for LDU de Quito.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aucas | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aucas vs LDU de Quito
- 26 August 2026LDU de Quito 1–0 AucasCopa Ecuador
- 17 August 2026Aucas 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 23 April 2026LDU de Quito 0–0 AucasLiga Pro
- 9 August 2025Aucas 1–0 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 18 April 2025LDU de Quito 3–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 17 August 2024Aucas 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Aucas and LDU de Quito
Aucas
- A. Preciado6 goals3 assists
- B. Miranda6 goals
LDU de Quito
- M. Estrada6 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aucas carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.62 for LDU de Quito. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Aucas and 1.07 for LDU de Quito. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aucas rate 0.65 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; LDU de Quito rate 0.68 and 1.10.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aucas the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Aucas against 1.07 for LDU de Quito. Aucas's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.1 for LDU de Quito.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aucas at home · LDU de Quito away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Aucas 31, LDU de Quito 31.
Aucas score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); LDU de Quito have let in 5 there.
LDU de Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Aucas have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aucas
- vs Barcelona SC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 35%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito1 Nov · Liga Prowin 25%
- vs Independiente del Valle8 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- at LDU de Quito22 Nov · Liga Prowin 26%
LDU de Quito
- vs Macara25 Oct · Liga Prowin 41%
- at Independiente del Valle1 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- at Barcelona SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 28%
- vs Aucas22 Nov · Liga Prowin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.