San Lorenzo
vs
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: San Lorenzo 0–0 Newell's Old Boys
The model makes it 33% San Lorenzo, 37% draw, 30% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 3.03, 2.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (23%).
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 0.80, Newell's Old Boys 0.72.
Both teams to score: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 20%, under 2.5: 80%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: San Lorenzo and Newell's Old Boys are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- San Lorenzo are 10th on 14 points from 12 games; Newell's Old Boys are 8th on 17 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- San Lorenzo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Deportivo Riestra.
- Newell's Old Boys have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Gimnasia Mendoza.
- Last 6 meetings: Newell's Old Boys 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Newell's Old Boys 0–0 San Lorenzo.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
San Lorenzo
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Defensa Y Justicia3 October 2026
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
Newell's Old Boys
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026
- D0-0Lanus3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
- Newell's Old Boys failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 14 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
San Lorenzo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
Newell's Old Boys
Chance to finish in the top four
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
- 12 April 2026Newell's Old Boys 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 July 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 March 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–2 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 7 October 2023San Lorenzo 0–3 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 March 2023Newell's Old Boys 1–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 June 2022Newell's Old Boys 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.59 for Newell's Old Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.80 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.72 for Newell's Old Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Lorenzo rate 0.54 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newell's Old Boys rate 0.71 and 1.20.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.80 expected goals for San Lorenzo against 0.72 for Newell's Old Boys. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.2 for Newell's Old Boys.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
San Lorenzo at home · Newell's Old Boys away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: San Lorenzo 28, Newell's Old Boys 27.
Newell's Old Boys score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); San Lorenzo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
San Lorenzo
- at Velez Sarsfield31 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 20%
- vs Platense8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 38%
Newell's Old Boys
- vs Union Santa Fe1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 43%
- at Instituto Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.