Regular Season - 15 · 28 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Hoffenheim II 3. Liga prediction

Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen

Our model says: Rot-Weiß Essen 2–1 Hoffenheim II

The model makes it 53% Rot-Weiß Essen, 25% draw, 22% Hoffenheim II — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Rot-Weiß Essen 1.87, Hoffenheim II 1.02.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Rot-Weiß Essen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Rot-Weiß Essen's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and Hoffenheim II's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 27 points from 13 games; Hoffenheim II are 9th on 19 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Alemannia Aachen.
  • Hoffenheim II have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Würzburger Kickers.
  • Last 4 meetings: Rot-Weiß Essen 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Hoffenheim II 2–4 Rot-Weiß Essen.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Hoffenheim II

55%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rot-Weiß Essen win Draw Hoffenheim II win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–010%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Rot-Weiß Essen first; the other scorelines share the remaining 41%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Rot-Weiß Essen at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs Hoffenheim II

Rot-Weiß Essen

3. Liga

  • W1-0Alemannia Aachen7 November 2026
  • W1-0away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1 November 2026
  • W1-0SSV Jahn Regensburg23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0417 October 2026
  • W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026

Hoffenheim II

3. Liga

  • W1-0away to Würzburger Kickers8 November 2026
  • L0-1FC Viktoria Köln31 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Waldhof Mannheim25 October 2026
  • W2-1Verl18 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Stuttgart II13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Rot-Weiß Essen had two goals or fewer.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hoffenheim II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hoffenheim II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Rot-Weiß Essen138322113+827
9Hoffenheim II136162220+219

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Rot-Weiß Essen

Chance to finish in the top three · 41% today

Win 46%
Draw 36%
Defeat 31%

Hoffenheim II

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 6% today

Win 2%
Draw 5%
Defeat 7%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Hoffenheim II

  • 7 March 2026Hoffenheim II 2–4 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
  • 1 October 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 3–1 Hoffenheim II3. Liga
  • 14 July 2024Rot-Weiß Essen 0–0 Hoffenheim IIFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 September 2023Hoffenheim II 5–1 Rot-Weiß EssenFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rot-Weiß Essen and Hoffenheim II

Rot-Weiß Essen

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Hoffenheim II

GoalsAssists

  • Y. B. Zor Muhammed83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rot-Weiß Essen a 9.8% chance of the title and Hoffenheim II 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Rot-Weiß Essen Hoffenheim II
0.58 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
1.57 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.98
1.87 Model expected goals (this match) 1.02

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen against 1.02 for Hoffenheim II. Rot-Weiß Essen's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.98 for Hoffenheim II.

Rot-Weiß Essen carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.2 for Hoffenheim II. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 53% for Rot-Weiß Essen to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rot-Weiß Essen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Rot-Weiß Essen's ratings add 4 points and Hoffenheim II's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Rot-Weiß Essen's ratings48%+4
  4. Hoffenheim II's ratings53%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Rot-Weiß EssenHoffenheim II
13Matches13
8W 3D 2LRecord6W 1D 6L
21 1.6 per gameGoals scored22 1.7 per game
13 1.0 per gameGoals conceded20 1.5 per game
7 of 13Clean sheets3 of 13
2 of 13Failed to score2 of 13
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 2
37 2.8 per gameYellow cards35 2.7 per game
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Rot-Weiß Essen at home · Hoffenheim II away

7Played7
6W 1D 0LRecord3W 0D 4L
13–3Goals for – against10–12
5 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: Rot-Weiß Essen 13, Hoffenheim II 13.

Rot-Weiß Essen scored 353137
Hoffenheim II conceded 345334

Rot-Weiß Essen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Hoffenheim II have let in 4 there.

Hoffenheim II scored 453232
Rot-Weiß Essen conceded 012333

Hoffenheim II score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Rot-Weiß Essen have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Rot-Weiß Essen

  • at SV Meppen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 33%
  • vs MSV Duisburg12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 41%
  • at Fortuna Düsseldorf19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 35%
  • vs Stuttgart II16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 53%

Hoffenheim II

  • vs FC Saarbrücken5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 43%
  • at Havelse12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 38%
  • vs SV Wehen19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 36%
  • at Alemannia Aachen16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 23%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.