Regular Season - 15 · 28 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

FC Saarbrücken vs Alemannia Aachen 3. Liga prediction

Ludwigspark Stadion

Our model says: FC Saarbrücken 2–1 Alemannia Aachen

The model makes it 41% FC Saarbrücken, 26% draw, 33% Alemannia Aachen — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: FC Saarbrücken 1.70, Alemannia Aachen 1.49.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Saarbrücken's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and Alemannia Aachen's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • FC Saarbrücken are 6th on 20 points from 13 games; Alemannia Aachen are 7th on 20 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • FC Saarbrücken have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat away to FC Viktoria Köln.
  • Alemannia Aachen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Rot-Weiß Essen.
  • Last 6 meetings: Alemannia Aachen 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 April 2026, ended FC Saarbrücken 1–1 Alemannia Aachen.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Saarbrücken vs Alemannia Aachen

64%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Saarbrücken win Draw Alemannia Aachen win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read FC Saarbrücken first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Saarbrücken at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Saarbrücken vs Alemannia Aachen

FC Saarbrücken

3. Liga

  • L3-5away to FC Viktoria Köln6 November 2026
  • W2-1Waldhof Mannheim1 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Havelse25 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Fortuna Düsseldorf17 October 2026
  • L2-4MSV Duisburg13 October 2026

Alemannia Aachen

3. Liga

  • L0-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen7 November 2026
  • W2-1Preußen Münster1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Stuttgart II24 October 2026
  • W2-0Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to SV Wehen14 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Saarbrücken scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Saarbrücken conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Saarbrücken had three goals or more.
  • Alemannia Aachen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6FC Saarbrücken136253126+520
7Alemannia Aachen136251919020

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

FC Saarbrücken

Chance to finish in the top three · 8% today

Win 11%
Draw 7%
Defeat 5%

Alemannia Aachen

Chance to finish in the top three · 20% today

Win 24%
Draw 19%
Defeat 16%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Saarbrücken vs Alemannia Aachen

  • 8 April 2026FC Saarbrücken 1–1 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 2 November 2025Alemannia Aachen 2–0 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
  • 10 May 2025Alemannia Aachen 4–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
  • 15 December 2024FC Saarbrücken 1–1 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 26 January 2013Alemannia Aachen 2–0 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
  • 7 August 2012FC Saarbrücken 1–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga

Leading scorers: FC Saarbrücken and Alemannia Aachen

FC Saarbrücken

GoalsAssists

  • K. Brünker51
  • F. Pick34

Alemannia Aachen

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Saarbrücken a 1.1% chance of the title and Alemannia Aachen 3.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Saarbrücken Alemannia Aachen
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.59
2.1 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.66
1.70 Model expected goals (this match) 1.49

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Saarbrücken the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken against 1.49 for Alemannia Aachen. FC Saarbrücken's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.66 for Alemannia Aachen.

FC Saarbrücken carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.33 for Alemannia Aachen. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for FC Saarbrücken to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Saarbrücken to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, FC Saarbrücken's ratings take away 2 points and Alemannia Aachen's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. FC Saarbrücken's ratings44%−2
  5. Alemannia Aachen's ratings41%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FC SaarbrückenAlemannia Aachen
13Matches13
6W 2D 5LRecord6W 2D 5L
31 2.4 per gameGoals scored19 1.5 per game
26 2.0 per gameGoals conceded19 1.5 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets3 of 13
2 of 13Failed to score4 of 13
–Penalties scored1 of 1
32 2.5 per gameYellow cards34 2.6 per game
1Red cards3
4-4-2 10×Usual shape3-4-2-1 5×

FC Saarbrücken at home · Alemannia Aachen away

6Played6
3W 0D 3LRecord2W 1D 3L
13–13Goals for – against6–7
0 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Saarbrücken 13, Alemannia Aachen 13.

FC Saarbrücken scored 443549
Alemannia Aachen conceded 426502

FC Saarbrücken score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Alemannia Aachen have let in 2 there.

Alemannia Aachen scored 931303
FC Saarbrücken conceded 366533

Alemannia Aachen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (9 goals); FC Saarbrücken have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

FC Saarbrücken

  • at Hoffenheim II5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
  • vs Würzburger Kickers12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 56%
  • at Stuttgart II19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
  • vs Verl16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 47%

Alemannia Aachen

  • vs Havelse5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 63%
  • at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 50%
  • at MSV Duisburg19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 25%
  • vs Hoffenheim II16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 52%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.