Rio Ave
vs
Famalicao
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Rio Ave 0–1 Famalicao
The model makes it 28% Rio Ave, 28% draw, 44% Famalicao — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Rio Ave 1.10, Famalicao 1.53.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Famalicao: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Rio Ave are 14th on 7 points from 8 games; Famalicao are 13th on 7 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Rio Ave have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Nacional.
- Famalicao have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Alverca.
- Last 6 meetings: Famalicao 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Rio Ave 0–0 Famalicao.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rio Ave vs Famalicao
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Famalicao at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rio Ave vs Famalicao
Rio Ave
- W3-2Nacional11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alverca19 September 2026
- D3-3Estrela14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
- L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026
Famalicao
- L1-4Alverca12 October 2026
- W4-0away to Nacional19 September 2026
- D1-1Sporting CP13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
What these results say
- Rio Ave conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rio Ave failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rio Ave had three goals or more.
- Famalicao failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Famalicao scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rio Ave
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Famalicao
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs Famalicao
- 1 March 2026Rio Ave 0–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 28 September 2025Famalicao 0–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 10 March 2025Famalicao 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 4 October 2024Rio Ave 1–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 16 February 2024Famalicao 2–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 16 September 2023Rio Ave 1–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Rio Ave and Famalicao
Rio Ave
GoalsAssists
- J. Blesa31
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rio Ave carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.8 for Famalicao. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Rio Ave and 1.53 for Famalicao. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rio Ave rate 0.76 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Famalicao rate 0.87 and 0.96.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Famalicao the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Rio Ave against 1.53 for Famalicao. Rio Ave's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.96 for Famalicao.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rio Ave at home · Famalicao away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Rio Ave 8, Famalicao 8.
Famalicao score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Rio Ave have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Rio Ave
- at Academico Viseu1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 20%
- vs SC Braga8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 21%
- at Arouca28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 20%
- vs Casa Pia6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 46%
- at Maritimo13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 27%
Famalicao
- at SC Braga1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 24%
- vs Arouca6 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- at Benfica30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 14%
- vs Academico Viseu6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- at Moreirense13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.