Aston Villa
vs
Arsenal
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 25% Aston Villa, 22% draw, 53% Arsenal — fair odds of 4.00, 4.55 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.43, Arsenal 2.11.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- 30 December 2025Arsenal 4–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 6 December 2025Aston Villa 2–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 18 January 2025Arsenal 2–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 24 August 2024Aston Villa 0–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 14 April 2024Arsenal 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 9 December 2023Aston Villa 1–0 ArsenalPremier League
The two sides
Aston Villa carry a model rating of 6.92 against 7.26 for Arsenal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Aston Villa and 2.11 for Arsenal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aston Villa rate 1.24 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal rate 1.37 and 0.61.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Aston Villa against 2.11 for Arsenal. Aston Villa's attack/defence rating is 1.24/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.61 for Arsenal.