Raków Częstochowa
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Zaglebie Lubin
The model makes it 37% Raków Częstochowa, 29% draw, 34% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.44, Zaglebie Lubin 1.32.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Raków Częstochowa wins, grey are draws, red are Zaglebie Lubin wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
- W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
- L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
- L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
- D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 3 |
| 8 | Zaglebie Lubin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 14 February 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 14 December 2025Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 31 March 2025Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 22 September 2024Raków Częstochowa 5–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 4 May 2024Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 5 November 2023Raków Częstochowa 5–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch4 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Raków Częstochowa carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.61 for Zaglebie Lubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.32 for Zaglebie Lubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raków Częstochowa rate 0.74 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.74 and 1.20.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zaglebie Lubin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Raków Częstochowa a 0% chance of the title and Zaglebie Lubin 3.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.32 for Zaglebie Lubin. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.2 for Zaglebie Lubin.