Korona Kielce
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Korona Kielce 2–1 Gornik Zabrze
The model makes it 40% Korona Kielce, 29% draw, 31% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.59, Gornik Zabrze 1.24.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Korona Kielce wins, grey are draws, red are Gornik Zabrze wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Korona Kielce at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
- D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
- L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
- W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Korona Kielce | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
- 18 April 2026Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 18 October 2025Korona Kielce 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 24 May 2025Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 1 December 2024Korona Kielce 2–4 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 19 February 2024Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 12 August 2023Korona Kielce 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński4 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Gornik Zabrze
- K. UrbaÅski3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Korona Kielce carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.63 for Gornik Zabrze. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.24 for Gornik Zabrze. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Korona Kielce rate 0.75 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gornik Zabrze rate 0.83 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gornik Zabrze, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Korona Kielce a 5.1% chance of the title and Gornik Zabrze 18.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Korona Kielce the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Korona Kielce against 1.24 for Gornik Zabrze. Korona Kielce's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.3 for Gornik Zabrze.