QPR
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction
The model makes it 48% QPR, 25% draw, 27% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: QPR 1.74, Cardiff 1.27.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
QPR
- W3-1away to Portsmouth15 August 2026
Cardiff
- D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: QPR vs Cardiff
- 23 July 2025QPR 2–2 CardiffFriendlies Clubs
- 5 April 2025QPR 0–0 CardiffChampionship
- 27 November 2024Cardiff 0–2 QPRChampionship
- 1 January 2024QPR 1–2 CardiffChampionship
- 12 August 2023Cardiff 1–2 QPRChampionship
- 26 December 2022Cardiff 0–0 QPRChampionship
Leading scorers
QPR
- I. Chair2 goals1 assists
Cardiff
- R. Colwill1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
QPR carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.77 for Cardiff. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): QPR W; Cardiff D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for QPR and 1.27 for Cardiff. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
QPR rate 0.92 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cardiff rate 0.85 and 1.00.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives QPR the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for QPR against 1.27 for Cardiff. QPR's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1 for Cardiff.