West Brom
vs
Charlton
Championship prediction
The model makes it 51% West Brom, 27% draw, 22% Charlton — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: West Brom 1.57, Charlton 0.95.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
West Brom
- W2-1away to Norwich15 August 2026
Charlton
- W2-1Derby15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: West Brom vs Charlton
- 24 February 2026West Brom 1–1 CharltonChampionship
- 4 November 2025Charlton 1–0 West BromChampionship
- 11 January 2020Charlton 2–2 West BromChampionship
- 5 January 2020Charlton 0–1 West BromFA Cup
- 26 October 2019West Brom 2–2 CharltonChampionship
Leading scorers
West Brom
- J. Morgan1 goals1 assists
Charlton
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
West Brom carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.89 for Charlton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): West Brom W; Charlton W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for West Brom and 0.95 for Charlton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Brom rate 1.05 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlton rate 0.81 and 0.79.
That points to 46% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Charlton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for West Brom against 0.95 for Charlton. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/0.79 for Charlton.