El Gouna FC vs El Mokawloon Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Gouna FC 0-1 El Mokawloon.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% El Gouna FC, 28% draw, 28% El Mokawloon — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts El Gouna FC at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — El Gouna FC vs El Mokawloon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. Masoud
- 2A. TaalabD
- 5S. El ShimiD
- 28M. MetaweaD
- 3A. KhaledD
- 14N. El Sayed
- 13O. El GazarM
- 29T. OjoM
- 42M. EgbembaM
- 70A. GamalM
- 9M. MohsenF
- 16I. EmadG
- 4I. Abou-SalimaM
- 34M. EssamD
- 20A. Belia
- 33D. SimukondaM
- 22M. RedaM
- 8R. SalahM
- 11A. ZakiF
- 27S. ZayedF
- 1M. Aboul-SaoudG
- 26KahrabaD
- 4H. ShakoushD
- 3M. HamedD
- 23J. OchayaD
- 6D. DodoM
- 14M. GamalM
- 17M. RefaatM
- 20I. GaberM
- 92I. ThiamM
- 99S. HusseinF
- 18M. FawziG
- 29O. KamalD
- 24N. HeshamD
- 27K. Abdelfattah
- 8A. FouadM
- 28I. AdelM
- 7A. BaniouwdaF
- 15M. SandouqaF
- 19A. Ouled BehiM
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
El Mokawloon won 1–0 at El Gouna FC. The model had leaned towards a win for El Gouna FC at 44% and given a win for El Mokawloon 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: M. Gamal (penalty) 44' for El Mokawloon. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.61.