Wrexham
vs
West Brom
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wrexham 1–0 West Brom
The model makes it 38% Wrexham, 31% draw, 31% West Brom — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wrexham 1.27, West Brom 1.04.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Wrexham are 14th on 10 points from 8 games; West Brom are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Wrexham have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Southampton.
- West Brom have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Wolves.
- Last 2 meetings: West Brom 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended West Brom 2–2 Wrexham.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wrexham vs West Brom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wrexham at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wrexham vs West Brom
Wrexham
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Swansea5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Millwall2 September 2026
West Brom
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
- W1-0Watford5 September 2026
- D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for West Brom had two goals or fewer.
- West Brom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs West Brom
- 3 April 2026West Brom 2–2 WrexhamChampionship
- 16 August 2025Wrexham 2–3 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Wrexham and West Brom
Wrexham
- K. Moore3 goals
West Brom
- J. Morgan3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wrexham carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.56 for West Brom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Wrexham and 1.04 for West Brom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wrexham rate 0.74 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Brom rate 0.62 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour West Brom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wrexham a 0.4% chance of the title and West Brom 2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Wrexham against 1.04 for West Brom. Wrexham's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.14 for West Brom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wrexham at home · West Brom away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Wrexham 8, West Brom 8.
Wrexham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); West Brom have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wrexham
- vs Preston17 Oct · Championshipwin 46%
- at Blackburn24 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- at Sheffield Utd30 Oct · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Middlesbrough4 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
West Brom
- vs Blackburn17 Oct · Championshipwin 39%
- at Preston24 Oct · Championshipwin 36%
- at West Ham31 Oct · Championshipwin 23%
- vs Southampton3 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.