Portsmouth
vs
Derby
Championship prediction
The model makes it 48% Portsmouth, 22% draw, 30% Derby — fair odds of 2.08, 4.55 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Portsmouth 2.16, Derby 1.70.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Portsmouth
- L1-3QPR15 August 2026
Derby
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Derby
- 16 March 2026Portsmouth 0–1 DerbyChampionship
- 20 December 2025Derby 1–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 12 April 2025Portsmouth 2–2 DerbyChampionship
- 13 December 2024Derby 4–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 2 April 2024Portsmouth 2–2 DerbyLeague One
- 16 September 2023Derby 1–1 PortsmouthLeague One
Leading scorers
Portsmouth
No league goals recorded yet.
Derby
- S. Szmodics1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portsmouth carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.82 for Derby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Portsmouth L; Derby L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.16 goals for Portsmouth and 1.70 for Derby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portsmouth rate 1.04 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Derby rate 1.03 and 1.10.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Derby, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 938 settled predictions (49%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portsmouth the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.7 for Derby. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.1 for Derby.