Lincoln
vs
Blackburn
Championship prediction
The model makes it 51% Lincoln, 23% draw, 26% Blackburn — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lincoln 2.00, Blackburn 1.39.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lincoln
- L1-2away to Middlesbrough15 August 2026
Blackburn
- D2-2away to Wolves14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Blackburn
- 23 July 2022Lincoln 0–1 BlackburnFriendlies Clubs
- 28 August 2018Blackburn 4–1 LincolnLeague Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lincoln carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.72 for Blackburn. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lincoln L; Blackburn D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Lincoln and 1.39 for Blackburn. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lincoln rate 0.88 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackburn rate 0.92 and 1.20.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Blackburn, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 938 settled predictions (49%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lincoln the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Lincoln against 1.39 for Blackburn. Lincoln's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.2 for Blackburn.