Sheffield Utd
vs
Bolton
Championship prediction
The model makes it 37% Sheffield Utd, 31% draw, 32% Bolton — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.09, Bolton 1.01.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sheffield Utd
- D0-0Birmingham15 August 2026
Bolton
- W2-1Preston15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Bolton
- 2 February 2019Sheffield Utd 2–0 BoltonChampionship
- 25 August 2018Bolton 0–3 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 30 December 2017Sheffield Utd 0–1 BoltonChampionship
- 12 September 2017Bolton 0–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 25 February 2017Sheffield Utd 2–0 BoltonLeague One
- 4 December 2016Bolton 3–2 Sheffield UtdFA Cup
The two sides
Sheffield Utd carry a model rating of 6.88 against 7.11 for Bolton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sheffield Utd D; Bolton W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.01 for Bolton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sheffield Utd rate 1.09 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bolton rate 0.70 and 0.53.
That points to 35% for over two and a half goals and 43% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bolton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 938 settled predictions (49%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Utd the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sheffield Utd against 1.01 for Bolton. Sheffield Utd's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.53 for Bolton.