Portsmouth
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction
The model makes it 50% Portsmouth, 23% draw, 27% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.97, Cardiff 1.40.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Portsmouth
- L1-3QPR15 August 2026
Cardiff
- D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Cardiff
- 11 February 2025Portsmouth 2–1 CardiffChampionship
- 22 October 2024Cardiff 2–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 9 August 2022Cardiff 0–3 PortsmouthLeague Cup
- 8 August 2017Cardiff 2–1 PortsmouthLeague Cup
- 21 January 2012Cardiff 3–2 PortsmouthChampionship
- 27 August 2011Portsmouth 1–1 CardiffChampionship
Leading scorers
Portsmouth
No league goals recorded yet.
Cardiff
- R. Colwill1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portsmouth carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.77 for Cardiff. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Portsmouth L; Cardiff D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Portsmouth and 1.40 for Cardiff. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portsmouth rate 1.04 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cardiff rate 0.85 and 1.00.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cardiff, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portsmouth the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.4 for Cardiff. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1 for Cardiff.