QPR
vs
Middlesbrough
Championship prediction
The model makes it 26% QPR, 23% draw, 51% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 3.85, 4.35 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: QPR 1.29, Middlesbrough 1.87.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
QPR
- W3-1away to Portsmouth15 August 2026
Middlesbrough
- W2-1Lincoln15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: QPR vs Middlesbrough
- 8 March 2026QPR 0–4 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 13 December 2025Middlesbrough 3–1 QPRChampionship
- 11 March 2025Middlesbrough 2–1 QPRChampionship
- 5 November 2024QPR 1–4 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 9 March 2024QPR 0–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 2 September 2023Middlesbrough 0–2 QPRChampionship
Leading scorers
QPR
- I. Chair2 goals1 assists
Middlesbrough
- W. Lankshear2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
QPR carry a model rating of 6.77 against 7.11 for Middlesbrough. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): QPR W; Middlesbrough W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for QPR and 1.87 for Middlesbrough. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
QPR rate 0.92 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Middlesbrough rate 1.25 and 0.74.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour QPR, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for QPR against 1.87 for Middlesbrough. QPR's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.25/0.74 for Middlesbrough.