Lyon vs Auxerre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lyon 3-1 Auxerre.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Lyon, 28% draw, 24% Auxerre — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyon at 48% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyon vs Auxerre
Line-ups
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 19M. NiakhatéD
- 16AbnerD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 23T. MortonM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 7E. NuamahF
- 10P. ŠulcF
- 17L. OpendaF
- 3N. TagliaficoD
- 6T. TessmannM
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 45R. HimbertF
- 21R. KluivertD
- 22Clinton MataD
- 18K. MerahM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 23M. DiopG
- 27L. SyD
- 15C. MakossoD
- 35E. LegrosD
- 92C. AkpaD
- 5K. DanoisM
- 46A. PiedfortM
- 10D. NamasoM
- 8N. AhamadaM
- 3R. Labeau LascaryM
- 9C. ArcherF
- 36T. DevernoisM
- 20S. DiomandéD
- 34L. DioubateM
- 17P. EkwahM
- 21R. FaivreM
- 32R. MandengueD
- 1P. NardiG
- 77Aristide ZossouM
- 7J. CasimirF
Form going into Lyon vs Auxerre
Lyon
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
Auxerre
- L1-3Angers29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Lens22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Auxerre
- 4 September 2026Lyon 3–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 25 April 2026Lyon 3–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- 23 November 2025Auxerre 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 13 April 2025Auxerre 1–3 LyonLigue 1
- 27 October 2024Lyon 2–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- 17 February 2023Auxerre 2–1 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lyon and Auxerre
Lyon
- E. Nuamah3 goals1 assist
- Z. Athekame2 goals2 assists
Auxerre
- C. Archer3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.