Lyon
vs
Auxerre
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 74% Lyon, 15% draw, 11% Auxerre — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Lyon 2.81, Auxerre 1.01.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Auxerre
- 25 April 2026Lyon 3–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- 23 November 2025Auxerre 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 13 April 2025Auxerre 1–3 LyonLigue 1
- 27 October 2024Lyon 2–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- 17 February 2023Auxerre 2–1 LyonLigue 1
- 31 August 2022Lyon 2–1 AuxerreLigue 1
The two sides
Lyon carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.56 for Auxerre. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lyon L-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.81 goals for Lyon and 1.01 for Auxerre. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lyon rate 1.10 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Auxerre rate 0.75 and 1.35.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.81 expected goals for Lyon against 1.01 for Auxerre. Lyon's attack/defence rating is 1.1/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.35 for Auxerre.