Dunkerque
vs
Clermont Foot
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 48% Dunkerque, 21% draw, 31% Clermont Foot — fair odds of 2.08, 4.76 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Dunkerque 2.23, Clermont Foot 1.78.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dunkerque
- D3-3away to Reims14 August 2026
- W4-2Grenoble8 August 2026
Clermont Foot
- L1-3away to Saint Etienne14 August 2026
- D0-0Reims8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dunkerque | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 16 | Clermont Foot | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot
- 27 February 2026Clermont Foot 2–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 9 August 2025Dunkerque 2–2 Clermont FootLigue 2
- 21 February 2025Dunkerque 3–0 Clermont FootLigue 2
- 13 September 2024Clermont Foot 0–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 16 January 2021Clermont Foot 5–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 29 August 2020Dunkerque 1–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
Leading scorers
Dunkerque
- E. Prutsev2 goals1 assists
- Marco Decherf1 goals2 assists
Clermont Foot
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dunkerque carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.88 for Clermont Foot. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dunkerque W-D; Clermont Foot D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Dunkerque and 1.78 for Clermont Foot. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunkerque rate 1.64 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Clermont Foot rate 0.68 and 0.72.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunkerque the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Dunkerque against 1.78 for Clermont Foot. Dunkerque's attack/defence rating is 1.64/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/0.72 for Clermont Foot.