Paris Saint Germain
vs
Lyon
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Lyon
The model makes it 56% Paris Saint Germain, 24% draw, 20% Lyon — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.04, Lyon 1.04.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Paris Saint Germain: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Paris Saint Germain are 6th on 11 points from 6 games; Lyon are 4th on 11 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Le Mans.
- Lyon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Lens.
- Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Lyon.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
Paris Saint Germain
- W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
Lyon
- L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026
- W4-0Rennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
What these results say
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Paris Saint Germain
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 48% today
Lyon
Chance to finish in the top four · 37% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
- 19 April 2026Paris Saint Germain 1–2 LyonLigue 1
- 9 November 2025Lyon 2–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 23 February 2025Lyon 2–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 15 December 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 LyonLigue 1
- 25 May 2024Lyon 1–2 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France
- 21 April 2024Paris Saint Germain 4–1 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Lyon
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres40
- Marquinhos30
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah31
- Z. Athekame22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Paris Saint Germain carry a model rating of 7.18 against 6.95 for Lyon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.04 for Lyon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paris Saint Germain rate 1.42 in attack and 0.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyon rate 1.04 and 0.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lyon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paris Saint Germain a 47.9% chance of the title and Lyon 4.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain against 1.04 for Lyon. Paris Saint Germain's attack/defence rating is 1.42/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.85 for Lyon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Paris Saint Germain at home · Lyon away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Paris Saint GermainLyon
Paris Saint Germain are 5th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Lyon are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Paris Saint Germain 6, Lyon 6.
Paris Saint Germain score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Lyon have let in 1 there.
Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Paris Saint Germain have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Paris Saint Germain
- at Le Havre30 Oct · Ligue 1win 57%
- at Villarreal3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
Lyon
- vs Angers31 Oct · Ligue 1win 61%
- at Real Sociedad5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.