Strasbourg
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint Germain
The model makes it 28% Strasbourg, 25% draw, 47% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.44, Paris Saint Germain 2.24.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Strasbourg are 8th on 7 points from 5 games; Paris Saint Germain are 6th on 8 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Strasbourg have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Paris FC.
- Paris Saint Germain have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Marseille.
- Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint Germain.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
Strasbourg
- L1-2away to Paris FC19 September 2026
- D1-1Monaco12 September 2026
- W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
- W2-1Lens29 August 2026
- L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026
Paris Saint Germain
- W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Rennes23 August 2026
What these results say
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Strasbourg had three goals or more.
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
- 1 February 2026Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 17 October 2025Paris Saint Germain 3–3 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 3 May 2025Strasbourg 2–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 19 October 2024Paris Saint Germain 4–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 2 February 2024Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 21 October 2023Paris Saint Germain 3–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Paris Saint Germain
Strasbourg
- Gessime Yassine2 goals1 assist
- S. Amo-Ameyaw2 goals
Paris Saint Germain
- Ferran Torres4 goals
- Marquinhos3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Strasbourg carry a model rating of 6.86 against 7.17 for Paris Saint Germain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Strasbourg and 2.24 for Paris Saint Germain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Strasbourg rate 1.16 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris Saint Germain rate 1.41 and 0.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Strasbourg against 2.24 for Paris Saint Germain. Strasbourg's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.41/0.74 for Paris Saint Germain.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Strasbourg at home · Paris Saint Germain away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Strasbourg 5, Paris Saint Germain 5.
Strasbourg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Paris Saint Germain have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Strasbourg
- at Rennes25 Oct · Ligue 1win 33%
- vs Auxerre1 Nov · Ligue 1win 49%
- at Toulouse6 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
- vs Stade Brestois 2921 Nov · Ligue 1win 48%
Paris Saint Germain
- vs Barcelona20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Lyon25 Oct · Ligue 1win 48%
- at Le Havre30 Oct · Ligue 1win 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.