Union St. Gilloise
vs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
The model makes it 71% Union St. Gilloise, 19% draw, 10% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 1.41, 5.26 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.47, Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.63.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Union St. Gilloise are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Union St. Gilloise are 5th on 3 points from 1 game; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 20th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to OH Leuven.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Ironi Tiberias.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 71% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Union St. Gilloise
- W3-0away to Plzen17 September 2026
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- D0-0Dinamo Zagreb16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
A clear gap in the ratings
Union St. Gilloise carry a model rating of 7.19 against 6.66 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.47 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.63 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union St. Gilloise rate 1.23 in attack and 0.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.82 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.63 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.21 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
Season stats
Union St. Gilloise at home · Hapoel Beer Sheva away
League matches only, this season — Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League, Hapoel Beer Sheva in the Ligat Ha'al. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Union St. Gilloise 8 in the Jupiler Pro League, Hapoel Beer Sheva 6 in the Ligat Ha'al.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Hapoel Beer Sheva have let in 3 there.
Hapoel Beer Sheva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Union St. Gilloise have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Union St. Gilloise
- vs Cercle Brugge25 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 68%
- at SK Beveren31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 65%
- at Celta Vigo5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
- vs Genk8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 60%
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- at Maccabi Haifa24 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 37%
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva31 Oct · Ligat Ha'alwin 62%
- vs OFI5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.