Derby
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction
The model makes it 45% Derby, 21% draw, 34% Swansea — fair odds of 2.22, 4.76 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Derby 2.18, Swansea 1.89.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Derby vs Swansea
- 14 February 2026Derby 2–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 25 November 2025Swansea 1–2 DerbyChampionship
- 5 April 2025Swansea 1–0 DerbyChampionship
- 27 November 2024Derby 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 9 April 2022Swansea 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 2 October 2021Derby 0–0 SwanseaChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Derby carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.98 for Swansea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Derby and 1.89 for Swansea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derby rate 1.11 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swansea rate 1.31 and 1.04.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derby the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Derby against 1.89 for Swansea. Derby's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.31/1.04 for Swansea.