Northampton
vs
Oldham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Northampton 1–0 Oldham
The model makes it 35% Northampton, 30% draw, 35% Oldham — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Northampton 1.29, Oldham 1.26.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Northampton and Oldham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Northampton vs Oldham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Northampton at 35% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Northampton vs Oldham
Northampton
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shrewsbury12 September 2026
- W1-0Newport County5 September 2026
- D1-1Crawley Town1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gillingham29 August 2026
Oldham
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tranmere5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town1 September 2026
- W3-0Swindon Town29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Oldham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Northampton vs Oldham
- 1 November 2025Oldham 3–1 NorthamptonFA Cup
- 15 April 2022Oldham 0–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 23 November 2021Northampton 2–1 OldhamLeague Two
- 2 November 2019Oldham 2–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 4 May 2019Oldham 2–5 NorthamptonLeague Two
Leading scorers: Northampton and Oldham
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Oldham
- C. Kavanagh3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Northampton carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.19 for Oldham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Northampton and 1.26 for Oldham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Northampton rate 0.46 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oldham rate 0.51 and 1.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Oldham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Northampton a 0% chance of the title and Oldham 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Northampton the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Northampton against 1.26 for Oldham. Northampton's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.92 for Oldham.