Swindon Town
vs
Walsall
League Two prediction
Our model says: Swindon Town 1–0 Walsall
The model makes it 36% Swindon Town, 29% draw, 35% Walsall — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Swindon Town 1.35, Walsall 1.30.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Swindon Town and Walsall are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Swindon Town are 12th on 11 points from 8 games; Walsall are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — League Two.
- Swindon Town are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Accrington Stanley.
- Walsall are unbeaten in their last 5 (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Tranmere.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Swindon Town 2–1 Walsall.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Swindon Town vs Walsall
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swindon Town at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Swindon Town vs Walsall
Swindon Town
- D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
- L0-4away to York12 September 2026
- W3-1Colchester5 September 2026
- W3-1Port Vale1 September 2026
Walsall
- D1-1away to Tranmere26 September 2026
- W2-0Port Vale19 September 2026
- D0-0Rochdale12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Crewe1 September 2026
What these results say
- Swindon Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Walsall went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Walsall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Walsall had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Swindon Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 5 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Walsall
- 6 April 2026Swindon Town 2–1 WalsallLeague Two
- 2 August 2025Walsall 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 1 March 2025Walsall 0–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 17 August 2024Swindon Town 0–4 WalsallLeague Two
- 16 April 2024Walsall 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 16 September 2023Swindon Town 2–0 WalsallLeague Two
Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Walsall
Swindon Town
- A. Drinan5 goals
Walsall
- A. Pressley4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Swindon Town carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.17 for Walsall. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Swindon Town and 1.30 for Walsall. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Swindon Town rate 0.50 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Walsall rate 0.48 and 1.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Walsall, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swindon Town a 0.9% chance of the title and Walsall 4.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swindon Town the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Swindon Town against 1.30 for Walsall. Swindon Town's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.86 for Walsall.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Swindon Town at home · Walsall away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Swindon Town 8, Walsall 8.
Swindon Town score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Walsall have let in 1 there.
Walsall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Swindon Town have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Swindon Town
- at Barnet20 Oct · League Twowin 25%
- at Bristol Rovers24 Oct · League Twowin 29%
- vs Rotherham31 Oct · League Twowin 37%
Walsall
- vs Oldham20 Oct · League Twowin 40%
- vs Salford City26 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- at Colchester31 Oct · League Twowin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.