Avai
vs
Ceara
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Avai 0–1 Ceara
The model makes it 29% Avai, 29% draw, 42% Ceara — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Avai 1.09, Ceara 1.57.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Avai are 17th on 30 points from 30 games; Ceara are 15th on 36 points from 30 games — Serie B.
- Avai have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Criciuma.
- Ceara are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Operario-PR.
- Last 6 meetings: Ceara 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 June 2026, ended Ceara 2–1 Avai.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Avai vs Ceara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ceara at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Avai vs Ceara
Avai
- L0-3away to Criciuma27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Goias20 September 2026
- D1-1Vila Nova15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fortaleza EC9 September 2026
- L1-3away to Novorizontino5 September 2026
Ceara
- D2-2away to Operario-PR26 September 2026
- W2-1Novorizontino18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Goianiense10 September 2026
- W2-1Sport Recife5 September 2026
What these results say
- Avai did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Avai conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ceara scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ceara conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ceara.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Avai | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 |
| 15 | Ceara | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Avai vs Ceara
- 10 June 2026Ceara 2–1 AvaiSerie B
- 3 November 2024Ceara 2–0 AvaiSerie B
- 20 July 2024Avai 0–1 CearaSerie B
- 22 October 2023Avai 1–0 CearaSerie B
- 28 June 2023Ceara 0–0 AvaiSerie B
- 8 November 2022Avai 2–0 CearaSerie A
The two sides
Avai carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.59 for Ceara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Avai and 1.57 for Ceara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Avai rate 0.55 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ceara rate 0.72 and 1.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ceara the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Avai against 1.57 for Ceara. Avai's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.22 for Ceara.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Avai at home · Ceara away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Avai 30, Ceara 30.
Avai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Ceara have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Avai
- vs Londrina7 Oct · Serie Bwin 41%
- at Cuiaba11 Oct · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Athletic Club MG18 Oct · Serie Bwin 38%
- vs Botafogo SP24 Oct · Serie Bwin 41%
- at Nautico Recife31 Oct · Serie Bwin 27%
Ceara
- vs Criciuma8 Oct · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Botafogo SP13 Oct · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs Juventude17 Oct · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs Goias24 Oct · Serie Bwin 53%
- at Athletic Club MG31 Oct · Serie Bwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.