Operario-PR
vs
Botafogo SP
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Operario-PR 2–1 Botafogo SP
The model makes it 47% Operario-PR, 26% draw, 27% Botafogo SP — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Operario-PR 2.07, Botafogo SP 1.24.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Operario-PR are 8th on 48 points from 31 games; Botafogo SP are 16th on 35 points from 30 games — Serie B.
- Operario-PR have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Juventude.
- Botafogo SP have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Ponte Preta.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 June 2026, ended Botafogo SP 2–1 Operario-PR.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Operario-PR at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP
Operario-PR
- L0-3away to Juventude2 October 2026
- D2-2Ceara26 September 2026
- W2-0away to Criciuma22 September 2026
- D3-3away to Nautico Recife15 September 2026
- W3-0CRB9 September 2026
Botafogo SP
- W2-0Ponte Preta29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club MG19 September 2026
- L1-3Goias14 September 2026
- L1-3Novorizontino9 September 2026
- L0-1away to Nautico Recife3 September 2026
What these results say
- Operario-PR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Operario-PR had three goals or more.
- Botafogo SP failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo SP scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo SP conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Operario-PR | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 48 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP
- 14 June 2026Botafogo SP 2–1 Operario-PRSerie B
- 18 September 2025Botafogo SP 1–1 Operario-PRSerie B
- 17 May 2025Operario-PR 3–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 13 October 2024Botafogo SP 0–0 Operario-PRSerie B
- 22 June 2024Operario-PR 0–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 29 January 2021Botafogo SP 0–1 Operario-PRSerie B
Leading scorers: Operario-PR and Botafogo SP
Operario-PR
- Boschilia13 goals4 assists
- Vinícius Diniz6 goals1 assist
Botafogo SP
- Everton Morelli8 goals2 assists
- Hygor7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Operario-PR carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.27 for Botafogo SP. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Operario-PR and 1.24 for Botafogo SP. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Operario-PR rate 0.71 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botafogo SP rate 0.56 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Operario-PR a 0.4% chance of the title and Botafogo SP 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Operario-PR the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Operario-PR against 1.24 for Botafogo SP. Operario-PR's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.79 for Botafogo SP.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Operario-PR at home · Botafogo SP away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Operario-PR 31, Botafogo SP 30.
Operario-PR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Botafogo SP have let in 2 there.
Botafogo SP score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Operario-PR have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Operario-PR
- vs Goias11 Oct · Serie Bwin 47%
- at America Mineiro17 Oct · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs Athletic Club MG24 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Novorizontino31 Oct · Serie Bwin 22%
- vs Sport Recife7 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
Botafogo SP
- vs Ceara13 Oct · Serie Bwin 29%
- at CRB18 Oct · Serie Bwin 26%
- at Avai24 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Sport Recife31 Oct · Serie Bwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.