Modena
vs
Mantova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Modena 1–0 Mantova
The model makes it 45% Modena, 27% draw, 28% Mantova — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Modena 1.58, Mantova 1.15.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Modena are 3rd on 13 points from 7 games; Mantova are 2nd on 14 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Modena have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Carrarese.
- Mantova have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Palermo.
- Last 6 meetings: Modena 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Modena 2–1 Mantova.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Modena vs Mantova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Modena at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Modena vs Mantova
Modena
- L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026
- W3-2Hellas Verona11 October 2026
- W2-1Empoli20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
Mantova
- L0-2Palermo17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Catanzaro11 October 2026
- D2-2Pisa20 September 2026
- W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
What these results say
- Modena conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Modena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Modena.
- Mantova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mantova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Modena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 | Mantova | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Modena
Chance to finish in the top four · 38% today
Mantova
Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Modena vs Mantova
- 21 March 2026Modena 2–1 MantovaSerie B
- 20 September 2025Mantova 1–3 ModenaSerie B
- 1 February 2025Modena 3–1 MantovaSerie B
- 30 November 2024Mantova 0–0 ModenaSerie B
- 14 March 2021Modena 1–1 MantovaSerie C - Girone B
- 16 November 2020Mantova 0–0 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
Leading scorers: Modena and Mantova
Modena
GoalsAssists
- G. Caso31
- G. Ambrosino22
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
- V. Vlahović21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Modena carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.58 for Mantova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Modena and 1.15 for Mantova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Modena rate 0.76 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mantova rate 0.81 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mantova, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Modena a 5.8% chance of the title and Mantova 5.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Modena against 1.15 for Mantova. Modena's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.39 for Mantova.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Modena at home · Mantova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Modena 7, Mantova 6.
Modena score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Mantova have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Modena
- at Virtus Entella8 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Juve Stabia21 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Pisa24 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
Mantova
- vs Hellas Verona7 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Avellino21 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Arezzo24 Nov · Serie Bwin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.