Cremonese
vs
Benevento
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Cremonese 1–0 Benevento
The model makes it 46% Cremonese, 28% draw, 26% Benevento — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cremonese 1.49, Benevento 0.97.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cremonese are 16th on 6 points from 6 games; Benevento are 6th on 11 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Cremonese are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Arezzo.
- Benevento are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Vicenza Virtus.
- Last 6 meetings: Benevento 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2022, ended Benevento 1–1 Cremonese.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cremonese vs Benevento
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cremonese at 46% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cremonese vs Benevento
Cremonese
- D0-0away to Arezzo10 October 2026
- D0-0Virtus Entella19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cesena12 September 2026
- W3-1Padova6 September 2026
- L0-3Modena28 August 2026
Benevento
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026
- W2-0Cesena10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese19 September 2026
- W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
What these results say
- Cremonese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cremonese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Benevento | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cremonese
Chance to finish in the top four · 31% today
Benevento
Chance to finish in the top four · 24% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Benevento
- 1 March 2022Benevento 1–1 CremoneseSerie B
- 17 October 2021Cremonese 1–1 BeneventoSerie B
- 21 June 2020Cremonese 0–1 BeneventoSerie B
- 30 October 2019Benevento 2–0 CremoneseSerie B
- 10 March 2019Cremonese 1–0 BeneventoSerie B
- 27 October 2018Benevento 2–1 CremoneseSerie B
Leading scorers: Cremonese and Benevento
Cremonese
GoalsAssists
- F. Bonazzoli31
Benevento
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cremonese carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.6 for Benevento. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Cremonese and 0.97 for Benevento. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cremonese rate 0.81 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benevento rate 0.74 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Benevento, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cremonese a 4.8% chance of the title and Benevento 3.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cremonese the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cremonese against 0.97 for Benevento. Cremonese's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.23 for Benevento.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cremonese at home · Benevento away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Cremonese 6, Benevento 7.
Cremonese score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Benevento have let in 0 there.
Benevento score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Cremonese have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cremonese
- at Vicenza Virtus8 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Sudtirol21 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Benevento
- vs Avellino7 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Sampdoria21 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
- vs Empoli24 Nov · Serie Bwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.