Catanzaro
vs
Padova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Catanzaro 1–0 Padova
The model makes it 50% Catanzaro, 26% draw, 24% Padova — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.75, Padova 1.05.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Catanzaro: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Catanzaro are 19th on 4 points from 7 games; Padova are 14th on 7 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Catanzaro are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Hellas Verona.
- Padova are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Virtus Entella.
- Last 6 meetings: Padova 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Padova 1–3 Catanzaro.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Catanzaro vs Padova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Catanzaro at 50% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Catanzaro vs Padova
Catanzaro
- D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026
- L1-3Mantova11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
Padova
- L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026
- L0-2Carrarese11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palermo19 September 2026
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
What these results say
- Catanzaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Catanzaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Padova | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Catanzaro
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
Padova
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Padova
- 14 March 2026Padova 1–3 CatanzaroSerie B
- 19 October 2025Catanzaro 0–1 PadovaSerie B
- 29 May 2022Padova 2–1 CatanzaroSerie C - Girone A
- 25 May 2022Catanzaro 0–0 PadovaSerie C - Girone A
- 19 January 2022Catanzaro 0–1 PadovaCoppa Italia Serie C
- 15 December 2021Padova 1–1 CatanzaroCoppa Italia Serie C
Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Padova
Catanzaro
GoalsAssists
- P. Iemmello20
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Catanzaro carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.42 for Padova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Catanzaro and 1.05 for Padova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Catanzaro rate 0.83 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Padova rate 0.59 and 1.41.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Padova, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Catanzaro a 0.6% chance of the title and Padova 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Catanzaro the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Catanzaro against 1.05 for Padova. Catanzaro's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.41 for Padova.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Catanzaro at home · Padova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Catanzaro 7, Padova 7.
Catanzaro score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Padova have let in 2 there.
Padova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Catanzaro have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Catanzaro
- at Cesena7 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
- vs Palermo21 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Juve Stabia24 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
Padova
- vs Empoli7 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
- at Arezzo21 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Sampdoria24 Nov · Serie Bwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.