Sigma Olomouc
vs
Pardubice
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 43% Sigma Olomouc, 27% draw, 30% Pardubice — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.49, Pardubice 1.19.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sigma Olomouc
- D2-2Mlada Boleslav2 August 2026
- L1-2away to FK Jablonec26 July 2026
Pardubice
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha9 August 2026
- L0-2FK Jablonec2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sigma Olomouc | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Pardubice | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sigma Olomouc carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.69 for Pardubice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sigma Olomouc L-D; Pardubice L-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.19 for Pardubice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sigma Olomouc rate 0.75 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pardubice rate 0.75 and 1.05.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sigma Olomouc the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc against 1.19 for Pardubice. Sigma Olomouc's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.05 for Pardubice.