MC Oran
vs
JS Saoura
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: MC Oran 1–0 JS Saoura
The model makes it 44% MC Oran, 31% draw, 25% JS Saoura — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: MC Oran 1.29, JS Saoura 0.82.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- MC Oran are 2nd on 10 points from 4 games; JS Saoura are 15th on 2 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
- MC Oran are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to US Biskra.
- JS Saoura have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to USM Alger.
- Last 6 meetings: JS Saoura 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended JS Saoura 2–0 MC Oran.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MC Oran vs JS Saoura
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MC Oran at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MC Oran vs JS Saoura
MC Oran
- W1-0away to US Biskra13 October 2026
- D0-0ES Setif8 October 2026
- W1-0away to ASO Chlef18 September 2026
- W2-0Témouchent11 September 2026
JS Saoura
- L0-1away to USM Alger13 October 2026
- D0-0Olympique Akbou8 October 2026
- D0-0away to US Biskra22 September 2026
- L0-4away to JS El Biar18 September 2026
What these results say
- MC Oran went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- MC Oran kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for MC Oran had two goals or fewer.
- JS Saoura did not win any of these 4 matches.
- JS Saoura failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for JS Saoura had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MC Oran | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 15 | JS Saoura | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MC Oran vs JS Saoura
- 13 March 2026JS Saoura 2–0 MC OranLigue 1
- 18 October 2025MC Oran 1–1 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 12 February 2025JS Saoura 2–0 MC OranLigue 1
- 24 September 2024MC Oran 2–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 17 February 2024JS Saoura 1–1 MC OranLigue 1
- 23 September 2023MC Oran 1–1 JS SaouraLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
MC Oran carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.32 for JS Saoura. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for MC Oran and 0.82 for JS Saoura. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MC Oran rate 0.55 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; JS Saoura rate 0.48 and 1.44.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MC Oran the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for MC Oran against 0.82 for JS Saoura. MC Oran's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.44 for JS Saoura.
Season stats
MC Oran at home · JS Saoura away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: MC Oran 4, JS Saoura 4.
MC Oran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); JS Saoura have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.