Olympique Akbou
vs
CS Constantine
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympique Akbou 2–1 CS Constantine
The model makes it 45% Olympique Akbou, 26% draw, 29% CS Constantine — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Olympique Akbou 1.80, CS Constantine 1.35.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Olympique Akbou are 11th on 4 points from 4 games; CS Constantine are 5th on 7 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Olympique Akbou are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to JS Saoura.
- CS Constantine have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Khenchela.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 March 2026, ended Olympique Akbou 1–0 CS Constantine.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympique Akbou vs CS Constantine
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympique Akbou at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olympique Akbou vs CS Constantine
Olympique Akbou
- D0-0away to JS Saoura8 October 2026
- L2-3USM Alger19 September 2026
- L0-2away to MB Rouisset12 September 2026
- W2-0away to JS El Biar3 September 2026
CS Constantine
- L0-2away to Khenchela12 October 2026
- W4-0US Biskra7 October 2026
- L1-5away to ES Setif19 September 2026
- W3-0ASO Chlef12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Témouchent5 September 2026
What these results say
- Olympique Akbou failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Olympique Akbou had two goals or fewer.
- CS Constantine scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Olympique Akbou | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | CS Constantine | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympique Akbou vs CS Constantine
- 17 March 2026Olympique Akbou 1–0 CS ConstantineLigue 1
- 25 October 2025CS Constantine 2–1 Olympique AkbouLigue 1
- 30 May 2025Olympique Akbou 0–0 CS ConstantineLigue 1
- 5 February 2025Olympique Akbou 1–0 CS ConstantineCoupe Nationale
- 8 November 2024CS Constantine 2–1 Olympique AkbouLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olympique Akbou carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.29 for CS Constantine. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Olympique Akbou and 1.35 for CS Constantine. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympique Akbou rate 0.54 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CS Constantine rate 0.66 and 2.05.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CS Constantine, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympique Akbou the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Olympique Akbou against 1.35 for CS Constantine. Olympique Akbou's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.05 for CS Constantine.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olympique Akbou at home · CS Constantine away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Olympique Akbou 4, CS Constantine 5.
Olympique Akbou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); CS Constantine have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Olympique Akbou
- vs JS Kabylie24 Oct · Ligue 1win 40%
- at MC Alger31 Oct · Ligue 1win 19%
CS Constantine
- at JS Saoura24 Oct · Ligue 1win 28%
- vs Ben Aknoun31 Oct · Ligue 1win 48%
- at CR Belouizdad7 Nov · Ligue 1win 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.