Lyon
vs
Angers
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lyon 2–0 Angers
The model makes it 62% Lyon, 23% draw, 15% Angers — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Lyon 2.07, Angers 0.78.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Lyon are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Lyon are 5th on 11 points from 6 games; Angers are 13th on 7 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Lyon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Lens.
- Angers have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Stade Brestois 29.
- Last 6 meetings: Lyon 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Angers 0–0 Lyon.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lyon vs Angers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyon at 62% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lyon vs Angers
Lyon
- L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026
- W4-0Rennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
Angers
- L1-5away to Stade Brestois 2910 October 2026
- W2-0Estac Troyes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Le Havre12 September 2026
- L1-2Rennes6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Auxerre29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Angers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 11 |
| 13 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Angers
- 5 April 2026Angers 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 19 September 2025Lyon 1–0 AngersLigue 1
- 17 May 2025Lyon 2–0 AngersLigue 1
- 7 December 2024Angers 0–3 LyonLigue 1
- 25 February 2023Angers 1–3 LyonLigue 1
- 3 September 2022Lyon 5–0 AngersLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lyon and Angers
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah31
- Z. Athekame22
Angers
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lyon carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.59 for Angers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Lyon and 0.78 for Angers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lyon rate 1.05 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Angers rate 0.68 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lyon a 5.7% chance of the title and Angers 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Lyon against 0.78 for Angers. Lyon's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.17 for Angers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lyon at home · Angers away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lyon 6, Angers 6.
Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Angers have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lyon
- at Real Sociedad5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 32%
- at Stade Brestois 298 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
Angers
- vs Nice8 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
- at Paris FC22 Nov · Ligue 1win 14%
- vs Lens28 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.