Lorient
vs
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lorient 2–1 Stade Brestois 29
The model makes it 43% Lorient, 27% draw, 30% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lorient 1.63, Stade Brestois 29 1.28.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Lorient are 9th on 8 points from 6 games; Stade Brestois 29 are 8th on 8 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Lorient have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Paris FC.
- Stade Brestois 29 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Angers.
- Last 6 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Lorient.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lorient at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29
Lorient
- W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Le Mans19 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
Stade Brestois 29
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Auxerre20 September 2026
- L0-1Paris Saint Germain13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Le Havre5 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lorient scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Stade Brestois 29 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29
- 7 February 2026Stade Brestois 29 2–0 LorientLigue 1
- 19 October 2025Lorient 3–3 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 20 July 2024Lorient 1–1 Stade Brestois 29Friendlies Clubs
- 31 March 2024Lorient 0–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 20 December 2023Stade Brestois 29 4–0 LorientLigue 1
- 7 May 2023Lorient 2–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
Leading scorers: Lorient and Stade Brestois 29
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- K. Doumbia41
- P. Mboup21
- L. Ajorque21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lorient carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.77 for Stade Brestois 29. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Lorient and 1.28 for Stade Brestois 29. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lorient rate 0.84 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stade Brestois 29 rate 0.98 and 1.15.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stade Brestois 29, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lorient a 0.1% chance of the title and Stade Brestois 29 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lorient the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lorient against 1.28 for Stade Brestois 29. Lorient's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.15 for Stade Brestois 29.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lorient at home · Stade Brestois 29 away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lorient 6, Stade Brestois 29 6.
Stade Brestois 29 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Lorient have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lorient
- at Le Havre8 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs Rennes22 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Paris Saint Germain28 Nov · Ligue 1win 14%
Stade Brestois 29
- vs Lyon8 Nov · Ligue 1win 32%
- at Strasbourg21 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs Paris FC27 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.