FC Nordsjaelland
vs
CSKA Sofia
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 48% FC Nordsjaelland, 27% draw, 25% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Nordsjaelland 1.61, CSKA Sofia 1.01.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Nordsjaelland are 4th in Superliga on 18 points from 10 games; CSKA Sofia are 2nd in First League on 27 points from 11 games.
- FC Nordsjaelland have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Odense.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to CSKA 1948.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Nordsjaelland at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia
FC Nordsjaelland
- D0-0Odense9 October 2026
- L1-4away to Viborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Nordsjaelland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | First League | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Superliga · First League
Leading scorers: FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- A. Lind31
- H. Boe Rasmussen31
CSKA Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Nordsjaelland carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.63 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.01 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.73 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.83 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland against 1.01 for CSKA Sofia. FC Nordsjaelland's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.28 for CSKA Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Nordsjaelland at home · CSKA Sofia away
League matches only, this season — FC Nordsjaelland in the Superliga, CSKA Sofia in the First League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Nordsjaelland 10 in the Superliga, CSKA Sofia 11 in the First League.
FC Nordsjaelland score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); CSKA Sofia have let in 1 there.
CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); FC Nordsjaelland have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Nordsjaelland
- at Silkeborg25 Oct · Superligawin 44%
- at Esbjerg28 Oct · DBU Pokalenwin 59%
- vs FC Midtjylland1 Nov · Superligawin 30%
- at Monaco5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%
CSKA Sofia
- vs Ludogorets24 Oct · First Leaguewin 34%
- at Levski Sofia31 Oct · First Leaguewin 23%
- at Panathinaikos5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 13%
- vs Slavia Sofia7 Nov · First Leaguewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.