Lille
vs
Lens
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lille 1–0 Lens
The model makes it 48% Lille, 26% draw, 26% Lens — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lille 1.70, Lens 1.10.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Lille are 2nd on 13 points from 6 games; Lens are 10th on 7 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Le Havre.
- Lens have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lyon.
- Last 6 meetings: Lille 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Lille 3–0 Lens.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lille vs Lens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lille vs Lens
Lille
- W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice20 September 2026
- W2-0Estac Troyes13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
Lens
- W2-1Lyon9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monaco18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans13 September 2026
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Lens
- 4 April 2026Lille 3–0 LensLigue 1
- 20 September 2025Lens 3–0 LilleLigue 1
- 30 March 2025Lille 1–0 LensLigue 1
- 26 October 2024Lens 0–2 LilleLigue 1
- 29 March 2024Lille 2–1 LensLigue 1
- 8 October 2023Lens 1–1 LilleLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lille and Lens
Lille
GoalsAssists
- D. Bakwa21
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lille carry a model rating of 7.06 against 6.94 for Lens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Lille and 1.10 for Lens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lille rate 1.02 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lens rate 1.17 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lille a 13.9% chance of the title and Lens 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lille the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Lille against 1.10 for Lens. Lille's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.99 for Lens.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lille at home · Lens away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LilleLens
Lille are 1st after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Lens are 7th after 6 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lille 6, Lens 6.
Lens score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Lille have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Lille
- at Bodo/Glimt3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- at Rennes8 Nov · Ligue 1win 41%
Lens
- vs Como4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%
- vs Marseille8 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.