Levante
vs
Athletic Club
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Levante 1–0 Athletic Club
The model makes it 40% Levante, 30% draw, 30% Athletic Club — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Levante 1.39, Athletic Club 1.05.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Levante vs Athletic Club
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Levante wins, grey are draws, red are Athletic Club wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levante at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Levante vs Athletic Club
Levante
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Osasuna24 August 2026
- L0-3away to Espanyol16 August 2026
Athletic Club
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
- L1-3Sevilla22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Levante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Levante vs Athletic Club
- 8 February 2026Athletic Club 4–2 LevanteLa Liga
- 29 November 2025Levante 0–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 7 March 2022Athletic Club 3–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 19 November 2021Levante 0–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 4 March 2021Levante 1–2 Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
- 26 February 2021Levante 1–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Leading scorers: Levante and Athletic Club
Levante
- Brugui3 goals
Athletic Club
- Robert Navarro2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Levante carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.93 for Athletic Club. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Levante and 1.05 for Athletic Club. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levante rate 1.03 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Athletic Club rate 0.97 and 0.83.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Athletic Club, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levante the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Levante against 1.05 for Athletic Club. Levante's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.83 for Athletic Club.