Flamengo vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 2-0 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Flamengo, 28% draw, 26% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Mirassol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Leo OrtizD
- 4Leo PereiraD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 20Lucas PaquetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 42A. da Silva VenturaG
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 13DaniloD
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 77J. GoesD
- 8S. NiguezM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 99LorranM
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 34Joao VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 96Carlos Eduardo
- 27DenilsonM
- 55G. CazonattiM
- 17FernandinhoM
- 9Andre LuisF
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 12Victor LuisD
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 18EliasD
- 80WallissonM
- 10Chico KimM
- 7ShaylonM
- 5JapaM
Form going into Flamengo vs Mirassol
Flamengo
- W3-0Botafogo30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cruzeiro22 August 2026
- W5-1away to Mirassol16 August 2026
- W2-0Vitoria9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
Mirassol
- D1-1Palmeiras30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
- L1-5Flamengo16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Mirassol.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | +33 | 64 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Mirassol
- 16 August 2026Mirassol 1–5 FlamengoSerie A
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Mirassol
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro166
- Samuel Lino97
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.