Le Havre
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Le Havre 0–1 Paris Saint Germain
The model makes it 18% Le Havre, 25% draw, 57% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 5.56, 4.00 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Le Havre 0.81, Paris Saint Germain 1.88.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Paris Saint Germain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Le Havre are bottom on 2 points from 6 games; Paris Saint Germain are 6th on 11 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Le Havre have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Lille.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Le Mans.
- Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Le Havre 0–1 Paris Saint Germain.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
- L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Toulouse19 September 2026
- D0-0Angers12 September 2026
- L1-2Stade Brestois 295 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyon29 August 2026
Paris Saint Germain
- W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
What these results say
- Le Havre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
- 28 February 2026Le Havre 0–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 22 November 2025Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 19 April 2025Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 16 August 2024Le Havre 1–4 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 27 April 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–3 Le HavreLigue 1
- 3 December 2023Le Havre 0–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Leading scorers: Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres40
- Marquinhos30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Le Havre carry a model rating of 6.68 against 7.18 for Paris Saint Germain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.81 goals for Le Havre and 1.88 for Paris Saint Germain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Havre rate 0.66 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris Saint Germain rate 1.42 and 0.73.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Le Havre a 0% chance of the title and Paris Saint Germain 48%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Le Havre against 1.88 for Paris Saint Germain. Le Havre's attack/defence rating is 0.66/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.42/0.73 for Paris Saint Germain.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Le Havre at home · Paris Saint Germain away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Le HavreParis Saint Germain
Le Havre are 18th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 14th and 18th so far); Paris Saint Germain are 5th after 6 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Le Havre 6, Paris Saint Germain 6.
Paris Saint Germain score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Le Havre have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Le Havre
- vs Lorient8 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at Estac Troyes20 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- vs Strasbourg28 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
Paris Saint Germain
- at Villarreal3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Estac Troyes7 Nov · Ligue 1win 82%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.