Dijon
vs
PAU
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 76% Dijon, 14% draw, 10% PAU — fair odds of 1.32, 7.14 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Dijon 3.07, PAU 1.13.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dijon
- D1-1away to Montpellier8 August 2026
PAU
- L0-1Annecy8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dijon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | PAU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Dijon
- A. Lembezat1 goals
PAU
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dijon carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.67 for PAU. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dijon D; PAU L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.07 goals for Dijon and 1.13 for PAU. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dijon rate 1.30 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAU rate 0.87 and 1.25.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dijon the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.07 expected goals for Dijon against 1.13 for PAU. Dijon's attack/defence rating is 1.3/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.25 for PAU.