26 July 2026, 00:30 UTC

Lanus vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lanus 1-0 San Lorenzo.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Lanus, 47% draw, 25% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 3.57, 2.13 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
E. Herrera
R. Carrera
39'
45+5'
F. Lorenzon
46'
🔁G. Alassiaout: I. Perruzzi
46'
🔁M. Insaurraldeout: M. Cardillo
57'
🔁F. Gulliout: N. Barrios
🔁R. Carreraout: E. Salvio
62'
🔁L. Besozziout: D. Aquino
63'
⚽Y. Valoisassist: D. Aquino
65'
🔁M. Sepulvedaout: F. N. Watson
70'
🔁Y. Valoisout: A. Wlk
71'
F. Pena Biafore
71'
77'
🔁R. Auzmendiout: M. Hernandez
77'
🔁E. Herreraout: A. Ladstatter
🔁F. Pena Biaforeout: A. Medina
82'
A. Medina
84'
90+4'
I. Perruzzi

Match stats — Lanus vs San Lorenzo

50%Possession50%
22Shots12
9On target5
8Corners2
1.53xG0.83

Goals against chances

Lanus1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth
San Lorenzo0 from 0.83 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lanus 4-2-3-1
  • 26Nahuel LosadaG
  • 4Gonzalo PerezD
  • 35Ronaldo De JesusD
  • 13José CanaleD
  • 6Sasha MarcichD
  • 5Felipe Peña BiaforeM
  • 30Agustín CardozoM
  • 16Matías SepúlvedaM
  • 23Ramiro CarreraM
  • 77Lucas BesozziM
  • 19Yoshan ValoisF
Substitutes
  • 11Eduardo SalvioM
  • 25Dylan AquinoF
  • 8Franco WatsonM
  • 20Allan WlkF
  • 17Agustín MedinaM
  • 1Franco PetroliG
  • 33Tomás GuidaraD
  • 24Carlos IzquierdozD
  • 3Nicolás MorgantiniD
Coach: Mauricio Pellegrino
San Lorenzo 4-4-2
  • 12Orlando GillG
  • 32Ezequiel HerreraD
  • 42Franco LorenzonD
  • 35Alejo CordobaD
  • 6Mathias de RitisD
  • 24Nicolás TripichioM
  • 62Gonzalo AlassiaM
  • 8Manuel InsaurraldeM
  • 10Facundo GulliM
  • 29Rodrigo AuzmendiF
  • 9Alexis CuelloF
Substitutes
  • 5Ignacio PerruzziM
  • 15Mauricio CardilloM
  • 28Nahuel BarriosM
  • 14Agustin LadstatterF
  • 44Matías HernándezF
  • 20Facundo AltamiranoG
  • 16Guzmán CorujoD
  • 3Teo Rodríguez PaganoD
  • 17Gregorio RodriguezF
Coach: Gustavo Alvarez

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lanus147341710+724
9San Lorenzo14536712-518

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lanus vs San Lorenzo

  • 23 January 2026San Lorenzo 2–3 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 5 October 2025Lanus 2–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 March 2025San Lorenzo 1–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 May 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 27 January 2024San Lorenzo 0–2 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Lanus vs San Lorenzo record →

The result against the call

Lanus beat San Lorenzo 1–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 47% and given a win for Lanus 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Y. Valois 65' for Lanus. On expected goals it finished 1.53–0.83.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.