River Plate vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: River Plate 0-1 Barracas Central.
Before kick-off the model made it 86% River Plate, 10% draw, 4% Barracas Central — fair odds of 1.16, 10.00 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts River Plate at 86% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — River Plate vs Barracas Central
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41Santiago BeltránG
- 29Gonzalo MontielD
- 28Lucas Martínez QuartaD
- 30Nicolás OtamendiD
- 21Marcos AcuñaD
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 44Lucas SilvaM
- 26Tomás GalvánM
- 25Lautaro PereyraM
- 11Facundo ColidioM
- 19Rafael BorréF
- 35Joaquín FreitasF
- 18Lucas BeltránF
- 8Mauro ArambarriM
- 10Ángel CorreaF
- 33Ezequiel CenturiónG
- 13Lautaro RiveroD
- 20Giovanni GonzálezD
- 36Ulises GiménezD
- 31Facundo GonzálezD
- 30Marcelo Agustín MiñoG
- 13Rafael BarriosD
- 14Kevin JappertD
- 15Yonatthan RakD
- 31Nicolás DemartiniD
- 6Rodrigo InsúaD
- 8Tomás PorraM
- 5Dardo MilocM
- 10Iván TapiaM
- 9Gonzalo MoralesF
- 11Norberto BriascoF
- 33Gonzalo MaroniM
- 20Jhonatan CandiaF
- 32Fernando TobioD
- 16Ivan GuarazF
- 17Elías PereyraD
- 1Juan EspínolaG
- 2Nicolas CapraroD
- 37Gastón CampiD
- 25Yeison GordilloM
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | River Plate | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 23 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: River Plate vs Barracas Central
- 24 January 2026Barracas Central 0–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 May 2025River Plate 3–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 November 2024River Plate 3–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 February 2024Barracas Central 0–2 River PlateCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 28 August 2023River Plate 5–1 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 1 July 2023Barracas Central 2–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: River Plate and Barracas Central
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
- G. Montiel73
Barracas Central
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barracas Central won 1–0 at River Plate. The model had leaned towards a win for River Plate at 86% and given a win for Barracas Central 4%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 25 matches like this one. The goal: G. Morales 22' for Barracas Central. On expected goals it finished 0.57–0.44.