25 July 2026, 22:15 UTC

River Plate vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires
Full time0 – 1

Final score: River Plate 0-1 Barracas Central.

Before kick-off the model made it 86% River Plate, 10% draw, 4% Barracas Central — fair odds of 1.16, 10.00 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts River Plate at 86% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽G. Morales
•L. Martinez Quarta
41'
44'
K. Jappert
E. Centurion
45+3'
🔁Fausto Veraout: J. Freitas
46'
🔁L. Pereyraout: L. Beltran
46'
52'
N. Briasco
58'
🔁G. Moralesout: G. Maroni
58'
🔁N. Briascoout: J. Candia
🔁F. Colidioout: A. Correa
67'
67'
🔁T. Porraout: F. Tobio
67'
🔁Y. Rakout: I. A. Guaraz
🔁T. Galvanout: M. Arambarri
68'
M. Arambarri
72'
78'
J. Candia
81'
D. Miloc
88'
I. A. Guaraz
90'
🔁I. Tapiaout: E. Pereyra

Match stats — River Plate vs Barracas Central

76%Possession24%
15Shots4
4On target2
3Corners1
0.57xG0.44

Goals against chances

River Plate0 from 0.57 xGless than the chances were worth
Barracas Central1 from 0.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

River Plate 4-2-3-1
  • 41Santiago BeltránG
  • 29Gonzalo MontielD
  • 28Lucas Martínez QuartaD
  • 30Nicolás OtamendiD
  • 21Marcos AcuñaD
  • 15Fausto VeraM
  • 44Lucas SilvaM
  • 26Tomás GalvánM
  • 25Lautaro PereyraM
  • 11Facundo ColidioM
  • 19Rafael BorréF
Substitutes
  • 35Joaquín FreitasF
  • 18Lucas BeltránF
  • 8Mauro ArambarriM
  • 10Ángel CorreaF
  • 33Ezequiel CenturiónG
  • 13Lautaro RiveroD
  • 20Giovanni GonzálezD
  • 36Ulises GiménezD
  • 31Facundo GonzálezD
Coach: Eduardo Coudet
Barracas Central 5-3-2
  • 30Marcelo Agustín MiñoG
  • 13Rafael BarriosD
  • 14Kevin JappertD
  • 15Yonatthan RakD
  • 31Nicolás DemartiniD
  • 6Rodrigo InsúaD
  • 8Tomás PorraM
  • 5Dardo MilocM
  • 10Iván TapiaM
  • 9Gonzalo MoralesF
  • 11Norberto BriascoF
Substitutes
  • 33Gonzalo MaroniM
  • 20Jhonatan CandiaF
  • 32Fernando TobioD
  • 16Ivan GuarazF
  • 17Elías PereyraD
  • 1Juan EspínolaG
  • 2Nicolas CapraroD
  • 37Gastón CampiD
  • 25Yeison GordilloM
Coach: Damian Ayude

Head-to-head: River Plate vs Barracas Central

  • 24 January 2026Barracas Central 0–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 12 May 2025River Plate 3–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 10 November 2024River Plate 3–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 February 2024Barracas Central 0–2 River PlateCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 28 August 2023River Plate 5–1 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 1 July 2023Barracas Central 2–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: River Plate and Barracas Central

River Plate

  • S. Driussi6 goals

Barracas Central

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.