26 July 2026, 20:15 UTC

Estudiantes La Plata vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata
Full time0 2

Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 0-2 Independiente.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Estudiantes La Plata, 27% draw, 40% Independiente — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Independiente at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

T. Palacios
40'
45+1'
L. Godoy
63'
🔁M. Abaldoout: M. Meza
🔁A. Castroout: Perez Fabricio
72'
🔁J. Burgosout: B. Aguirre
72'
76'
G. Avalosassist: S. Montiel
G. Carrillo (pen)assist: G. Carrillo
81'
82'
S. Montiel
84'
🔁L. Godoyout: S. Arias
84'
🔁M. Gutierrezout: D. Martinez
🔁R. Funes Moriout: L. Alario
85'
🔁T. Palaciosout: E. Cetre
85'
🔁L. Pioviout: J. Sosa
86'
89'
🔁G. Avalosout: K. Lomonaco

Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Independiente

60%Possession40%
15Shots14
3On target5
5Corners5
1.87xG1.34

Goals against chances

Estudiantes La Plata0 from 1.87 xGless than the chances were worth
Independiente2 from 1.34 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estudiantes La Plata 4-4-2
  • 16Fernando MusleraG
  • 20Eric MezaD
  • 4Santiago NúñezD
  • 26Ramiro Funes MoriD
  • 24Tomás PalaciosD
  • 32Mikel AmondarainM
  • 21Ezequiel PioviM
  • 22Alexis CastroM
  • 17Joaquín Tobio BurgosM
  • 10Tiago PalaciosF
  • 9Guido CarrilloF
Substitutes
  • 29Fabricio PérezF
  • 28Brian AguirreF
  • 27Lucas AlarioF
  • 18Edwuin CetréF
  • 7José SosaM
  • 1Fabricio IacovichG
  • 13Gastón BenedettiD
  • 35Valente PieraniD
  • 40Eros MancusoD
Coach: Alexander Medina
Independiente 4-2-3-1
  • 33Rodrigo ReyG
  • 29Leonardo GodoyD
  • 13Juan FedorcoD
  • 36Sebastián ValdezD
  • 22Facundo ZabalaD
  • 16Mateo Perez CurciM
  • 23Iván MarconeM
  • 28Maximiliano GutiérrezM
  • 7Santiago MontielM
  • 19Matías AbaldoM
  • 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
Substitutes
  • 8Maxi MezaF
  • 4Santiago AriasD
  • 32David MartínezM
  • 26Kevin LomónacoD
  • 1Joaquín BlázquezG
  • 3Jonathan De IrastorzaD
  • 35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
  • 14Lautaro MillánM
  • 20Facundo CruzM
Coach: Gustavo Quinteros

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Estudiantes La Plata931599010
6Independiente942387+114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Independiente

  • 26 July 2026Estudiantes La Plata 0–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 23 January 2026Independiente 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 11 August 2024Estudiantes La Plata 0–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 September 2023Independiente 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa Argentina
  • 9 April 2023Independiente 1–2 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 21 June 2022Independiente 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Estudiantes La Plata and Independiente

Estudiantes La Plata

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Independiente

  • G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.