Estudiantes La Plata vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 0-2 Independiente.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Estudiantes La Plata, 27% draw, 40% Independiente — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Independiente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Fernando MusleraG
- 20Eric MezaD
- 4Santiago NúñezD
- 26Ramiro Funes MoriD
- 24Tomás PalaciosD
- 32Mikel AmondarainM
- 21Ezequiel PioviM
- 22Alexis CastroM
- 17Joaquín Tobio BurgosM
- 10Tiago PalaciosF
- 9Guido CarrilloF
- 29Fabricio PérezF
- 28Brian AguirreF
- 27Lucas AlarioF
- 18Edwuin CetréF
- 7José SosaM
- 1Fabricio IacovichG
- 13Gastón BenedettiD
- 35Valente PieraniD
- 40Eros MancusoD
- 33Rodrigo ReyG
- 29Leonardo GodoyD
- 13Juan FedorcoD
- 36Sebastián ValdezD
- 22Facundo ZabalaD
- 16Mateo Perez CurciM
- 23Iván MarconeM
- 28Maximiliano GutiérrezM
- 7Santiago MontielM
- 19Matías AbaldoM
- 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
- 8Maxi MezaF
- 4Santiago AriasD
- 32David MartínezM
- 26Kevin LomónacoD
- 1Joaquín BlázquezG
- 3Jonathan De IrastorzaD
- 35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 20Facundo CruzM
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Estudiantes La Plata | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Independiente
- 23 January 2026Independiente 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 August 2024Estudiantes La Plata 0–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 September 2023Independiente 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa Argentina
- 9 April 2023Independiente 1–2 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 June 2022Independiente 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Estudiantes La Plata and Independiente
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente won 2–0 at Estudiantes La Plata. The model had made a win for Independiente its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: G. Avalos 76' for Independiente, S. Montiel 82' for Independiente. On expected goals it finished 1.87–1.34.