Inter Turku
vs
AC Oulu
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Inter Turku 1–0 AC Oulu
The model makes it 54% Inter Turku, 27% draw, 19% AC Oulu — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Inter Turku 1.87, AC Oulu 0.67.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Inter Turku are 2nd on 48 points from 25 games; AC Oulu are bottom on 34 points from 25 games — Veikkausliiga, Championship Group.
- Inter Turku have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to AC Oulu.
- AC Oulu are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Inter Turku.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Turku 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 September 2026, ended AC Oulu 0–1 Inter Turku.
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Inter Turku vs AC Oulu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Turku at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter Turku vs AC Oulu
Inter Turku
- W1-0away to AC Oulu18 September 2026
- W1-0VPS14 September 2026
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026
- W1-0KuPS31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS23 August 2026
AC Oulu
- L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
- L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
- L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
- D0-0SJK31 August 2026
- W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter Turku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Turku kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Turku had two goals or fewer.
- AC Oulu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AC Oulu had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Turku | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 18 | +14 | 48 |
| 6 | AC Oulu | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs AC Oulu
- 18 September 2026AC Oulu 0–1 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 16 August 2026AC Oulu 2–3 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 13 June 2026Inter Turku 0–0 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
- 21 March 2026Inter Turku 2–1 AC OuluLeague Cup
- 8 August 2025Inter Turku 3–2 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
- 26 April 2025AC Oulu 1–4 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Inter Turku and AC Oulu
Inter Turku
- H. Sjögrell6 goals1 assist
- J. Yli-Kokko2 goals1 assist
AC Oulu
- J. Körkkö2 goals2 assists
- E. Kallio2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Turku carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.06 for AC Oulu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Inter Turku and 0.67 for AC Oulu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Turku rate 0.58 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Oulu rate 0.39 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Inter Turku a 46.7% chance of the title and AC Oulu 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Turku the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Inter Turku against 0.67 for AC Oulu. Inter Turku's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.94 for AC Oulu.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Inter Turku at home · AC Oulu away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: Inter Turku 25, AC Oulu 25.
AC Oulu score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Inter Turku have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Inter Turku
- at VPS24 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 42%
- vs HJK Helsinki29 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 45%
- vs Gnistan2 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 49%
AC Oulu
- at Gnistan24 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 26%
- vs VPS28 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 33%
- vs KuPS1 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.