Lahti
vs
Turku PS
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Lahti 1–0 Turku PS
The model makes it 40% Lahti, 31% draw, 29% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lahti 1.29, Turku PS 0.94.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Lahti are top on 36 points from 25 games; Turku PS are 3rd on 32 points from 25 games — Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group.
- Lahti have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FF Jaro.
- Turku PS have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Ilves.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 23 June 2026, ended Lahti 0–0 Turku PS.
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lahti vs Turku PS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lahti at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lahti vs Turku PS
Lahti
- D1-1FF Jaro18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ilves12 September 2026
- W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
- W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
- W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
Turku PS
- L0-3Ilves19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mariehamn12 September 2026
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
What these results say
- Lahti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lahti conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Lahti.
- Turku PS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Turku PS failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Turku PS had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lahti | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 36 |
| 3 | Turku PS | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lahti vs Turku PS
- 23 June 2026Lahti 0–0 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
- 10 April 2026Turku PS 2–1 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 31 January 2026Lahti 5–1 Turku PSLeague Cup
- 18 October 2025Turku PS 3–3 LahtiYkkösliiga
- 14 July 2025Lahti 2–2 Turku PSYkkösliiga
- 21 May 2025Turku PS 2–2 LahtiYkkösliiga
Leading scorers: Lahti and Turku PS
Lahti
- Martim Ferreira4 goals1 assist
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lahti carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.16 for Turku PS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Lahti and 0.94 for Turku PS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lahti rate 0.45 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Turku PS rate 0.42 and 1.72.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lahti the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lahti against 0.94 for Turku PS. Lahti's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.72 for Turku PS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lahti at home · Turku PS away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: Lahti 25, Turku PS 25.
Lahti score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Turku PS have let in 1 there.
Turku PS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Lahti have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.