FF Jaro
vs
Mariehamn
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: FF Jaro 2–1 Mariehamn
The model makes it 37% FF Jaro, 28% draw, 35% Mariehamn — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FF Jaro 1.57, Mariehamn 1.48.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FF Jaro and Mariehamn are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- FF Jaro are bottom on 17 points from 25 games; Mariehamn are 5th on 17 points from 25 games — Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group.
- FF Jaro have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Lahti.
- Mariehamn have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to SJK.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended Mariehamn 2–0 FF Jaro.
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FF Jaro vs Mariehamn
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FF Jaro at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FF Jaro vs Mariehamn
FF Jaro
- D1-1away to Lahti18 September 2026
- D1-1SJK12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026
Mariehamn
- L1-2away to SJK18 September 2026
- W1-0Turku PS12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
What these results say
- FF Jaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FF Jaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FF Jaro had two goals or fewer.
- Mariehamn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FF Jaro | 25 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 48 | -28 | 17 |
| 5 | Mariehamn | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FF Jaro vs Mariehamn
- 31 August 2026Mariehamn 2–0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 23 May 2026FF Jaro 3–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 28 September 2025FF Jaro 2–3 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 6 July 2025FF Jaro 1–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 5 April 2025Mariehamn 0–2 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 17 September 2015FF Jaro 0–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FF Jaro carry a model rating of 5.86 against 5.91 for Mariehamn. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for FF Jaro and 1.48 for Mariehamn. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FF Jaro rate 0.36 in attack and 2.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mariehamn rate 0.40 and 2.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FF Jaro the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FF Jaro against 1.48 for Mariehamn. FF Jaro's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.62 for Mariehamn.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FF Jaro at home · Mariehamn away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: FF Jaro 25, Mariehamn 25.
FF Jaro score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Mariehamn have let in 7 there.
Mariehamn score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); FF Jaro have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.