Ilves
vs
SJK
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Ilves 2–1 SJK
The model makes it 46% Ilves, 25% draw, 29% SJK — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Ilves 2.28, SJK 1.53.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Ilves are 2nd on 34 points from 25 games; SJK are 4th on 24 points from 25 games — Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group.
- Ilves are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win away to Turku PS.
- SJK are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Mariehamn.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Ilves 2–2 SJK.
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ilves vs SJK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ilves vs SJK
Ilves
- W3-0away to Turku PS19 September 2026
- W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
SJK
- W2-1Mariehamn18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FF Jaro12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
- D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
- L1-2Lahti21 August 2026
What these results say
- Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SJK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ilves | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 | SJK | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ilves vs SJK
- 27 June 2026Ilves 2–2 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 2 May 2026SJK 1–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 18 February 2026Ilves 3–1 SJKLeague Cup
- 3 November 2025Ilves 3–3 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 4 October 2025SJK 2–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 5 July 2025SJK 1–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Ilves and SJK
Ilves
- T. Hytönen7 goals
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- E. Tamminen3 goals2 assists
SJK
- E. Mastokangas2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ilves carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.13 for SJK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.28 goals for Ilves and 1.53 for SJK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ilves rate 0.65 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SJK rate 0.50 and 2.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ilves the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Ilves against 1.53 for SJK. Ilves's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.11 for SJK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ilves at home · SJK away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: Ilves 25, SJK 25.
SJK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Ilves have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.