IMT Novi Beograd
vs
Macva
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Macva
The model makes it 50% IMT Novi Beograd, 29% draw, 21% Macva — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.48, Macva 0.76.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to IMT Novi Beograd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. IMT Novi Beograd's rating is built from 52 Serbian SuperLiga matches and Macva's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- IMT Novi Beograd are 4th on 23 points from 15 games; Macva are 11th on 13 points from 15 games — Super Liga.
- IMT Novi Beograd are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Zemun.
- Macva have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to FK Partizan.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Macva 1–0 IMT Novi Beograd.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: IMT Novi Beograd vs Macva
Has the model earned this number?
IMT Novi Beograd at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs Macva
IMT Novi Beograd
Super Liga
- D1-1away to Zemun7 November 2026
- D0-0Cukaricki1 November 2026
- L0-1Železničar Pančevo23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Novi Pazar18 October 2026
- W1-0Radnik Surdulica10 October 2026
Macva
Super Liga
- W2-1away to FK Partizan8 November 2026
- L2-4FK Crvena Zvezda31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Zemun23 October 2026
- D1-1OFK Beograd17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cukaricki10 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for IMT Novi Beograd had two goals or fewer.
- Macva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Macva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Macva scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 23 |
| 11 | Macva | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
IMT Novi Beograd
Chance to finish in the top six · 67% today
Macva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs Macva
- 9 August 2026Macva 1–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 3 December 2025Macva 1–1 IMT Novi BeogradCup
- 30 October 2024Macva 0–1 IMT Novi BeogradCup
- 22 March 2023IMT Novi Beograd 1–3 MacvaPrva Liga
- 24 September 2022Macva 0–0 IMT Novi BeogradPrva Liga
- 4 April 2022IMT Novi Beograd 6–1 MacvaPrva Liga
Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and Macva
IMT Novi Beograd
GoalsAssists
- C. Keita32
Macva
GoalsAssists
- M. Vidakov40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd against 0.76 for Macva. IMT Novi Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.02 for Macva.
How the model reaches 50% for IMT Novi Beograd to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for IMT Novi Beograd to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, IMT Novi Beograd's ratings add 4 points and Macva's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Both sides at this match's level39%−3
- IMT Novi Beograd's ratings43%+4
- Macva's ratings50%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
IMT Novi Beograd at home · Macva away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: IMT Novi Beograd 15, Macva 15.
IMT Novi Beograd score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Macva have let in 9 there.
Macva score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); IMT Novi Beograd have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
IMT Novi Beograd
- at Radnicki NIS6 Dec · Super Ligawin 42%
- vs Radnicki 19236 Feb · Super Ligawin 40%
- at Mladost Lucani13 Feb · Super Ligawin 41%
- vs OFK Beograd20 Feb · Super Ligawin 47%
Macva
- vs Radnik Surdulica6 Dec · Super Ligawin 32%
- at Radnicki NIS6 Feb · Super Ligawin 33%
- vs Novi Pazar13 Feb · Super Ligawin 35%
- at Radnicki 192320 Feb · Super Ligawin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.